Bears, bulls, hawks and doves: the animals of economics
There are four animals that are frequently used to describe economic situations.
23 September 2024
They come in two pairs:
- Bulls and bears, which describe the mood of the stock market.
- Hawks and doves, which describe an approach to interest rates.
A bull market is one that’s charging ahead – stock prices are rising. Similarly, if you believe the stock will rise, you’re bullish. Makes sense, since bulls are known for charging. This is why there’s a famous statue of a charging bull in front of the New York Stock Exchange.
Conversely, a bear market is declining. If you’re pessimistic about the markets, you’re bearish. This isn’t intuitive, since bears are also pretty ferocious, but maybe if you think about them hibernating that makes it more memorable?
It’s not entirely clear where these terms come from, but they seem to have originated in the 17th century. The etymology is likely connected to the bearskin trade, where middlemen benefited from falling prices. Bulls were picked as their opposite.
Hawks are those who favour higher interest rates – an aggressive approach to an inflation problem. So, if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raises the official cash rate (OCR), and signals further rises, it might be described as hawkish.
Doves are the opposite – they favour lower interest rates. If the RBNZ lowers rates, it’s dovish.
These terms have distant roots: doves have been a symbol of peace since biblical times. In the context of international relations, doves seek peace and hawks want war.
There are also a few other animals that pop up when we talk about money. A cash cow is a great investment or business that keeps making money like a cow keeps making milk. A black swan event is unforeseeable and catastrophic (like the pandemic). A dog is a business that performs poorly. And the rather unpleasant dead cat bounce is when a falling stock has a brief upturn before continuing to decline. The idea is that “even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a great height”.
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